the forecasting of hydrological variables, such as streamflow, plays an important role in water resource planning and management. recently, the development of stochastic models is regarded as a major step for this purpose. streamflow forecasting using the arima model can be conducted when unknown parameters are estimated correctly because parameter estimation is one of the crucial steps in mode...

Mixed models are widely used to analyze longitudinal data. In their conventional formulation as linear mixed models (LMMs) and generalized LMMs (GLMMs), a commonly indispensable assumption in settings involving longitudinal non-Gaussian data is that the longitudinal observations from subjects are conditionally independent, given subject-specific random effects. Although conventional Gaussian...

We hypothesized that causal conditional reasoning reflects judgment of the conditional likelihood of causes and effects based on a probabilistic causal model of the scenario being judged. Although this proposal has much in common with Cummins’ (1995) theory based on the number of disabling conditions and alternative causes, it takes more variables into account and therefore makes some differing...

We present the CEM (Conditional Expectation Maximization) algorithm as an extension of the EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm to conditional density estimation under missing data. A bounding and maximization process is given to speciically optimize conditional likelihood instead of the usual joint likelihood. We apply the method to conditioned mixture models and use bounding techniques to ...

‎Recently a first-order Spatial Integer-valued Autoregressive‎ ‎SINAR(1,1) model was introduced to model spatial data that comes‎ ‎in counts citep{ghodsi2012}‎. ‎Some properties of this model‎ ‎have been established and the Yule-Walker estimator has been‎ ‎proposed for this model‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎we introduce the...